Research · How the system works (and how we know)
We learn in public. Methodology first, performance second.
Most crypto-signal services post precision numbers without showing the math. We do the opposite — strategy components, backtest methodology, the regime framework, and the iteration log. Live performance numbers publish automatically once a meaningful sample of closed trades accumulates. Until then, expect transparency about what we’re measuring and why.
Current strategy
What backtests can’t tell us
Forward-pick replay assumes perfect order fills, no slippage above stated fees, and that historical liquidity reflects what we’d actually face. Live trading exposes real microstructure cost.
Strategy components were tuned on the same data we backtested. Some of the measured edge is curve-fitting. Out-of-sample live performance is the genuine test.
The regime-conditional bear-trap detector hasn’t had a chance to fire in our 30-day window because we’ve been in a sustained bull market. Its calibration is theoretical until a regime shift validates it live.